School nursery expansion unlikely to meet demand finds research

Dr Gillian Paull, associate at Frontier Economics, led the research into capacity

The government’s plan to use spare capacity in primary schools to meet the demand for childcare is unlikely to work because spare places are unevenly distributed, according to new research.

The government estimates the expansion of the funded early education entitlement will require almost 78,000 new nursery places by September 2025, while total pupil numbers in England are projected to fall by just over 200,000 between September 2022 and 2027, freeing up capacity in schools.

However the research from Frontier Economics found plans to convert spare primary school capacity in England into more than 3,000 30-place nurseries are unrealistic because the number of spare places varies geographically, with only 15% of local authorities able to meet demand through spare reception places.

The spare capacity is also spread thinly across schools, with the average number of spare places per school projected to be two for reception, four for reception and Year 1 combined, and six across reception, Year 1 and Year 2.

Using Spare Capacity in Schools for New Nurseries: Do the Numbers Add Up? finds that by combining reception and Year 1 classes 49% of local authorities would be able to meet demand, and by combining reception, year 1 and Year 2 64% would be able to meet demand. However even by combining spare space across all three infant groups, spare capacity would be less than half the new nursery demand in 17% of local authorities, with no spare capacity in 7%.

The analysis reveals the numbers of spare places per school are particularly low in the East Midlands and the East of England, and highest in London. However it points out the substantial excess supply of spare capacity in London could also mean that the demand is spread thinly across schools and individual schools find there is insufficient demand for their new nursery places.

Dr Gillian Paull, associate at Frontier Economics, said: “Our analysis shows that the government’s current plan to use spare capacity in primary schools to deliver new nursery targets is unlikely to work. Even with full utilisation of spare capacity, the poor geographic match with new nursery demand leaves some areas falling well short.”

She added: “This suggests that it may be time to explore additional approaches for expanding nursery provision. Supporting expansion of existing nurseries in schools, or providing sufficient funding to encourage expansion of the delivery of free places in private and voluntary settings, could be good places to start.”

Neil Leitch, chief executive of the Early Years Alliance, said: “Ultimately, if the government’s promise to parents of more funded care and education is ever to be realised, encouraging schools to open new early years provision can only ever form part of much wider plans to support the growth of the entirety of the sector.”

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